They build shacks and eke out an impossible living in squalid conditions. The movers are people leaving the hinterland for better opportunities – but in reality economic crumbs on the outskirts of big centres like Joburg. SA is a rapidly urbanising country, with throngs of arrivals in cities weekly. We saw this week the solid continuation of a trend where the ANC loses votes in the cities. He has to make deals with either the DA or the EFF, so that the ANC can control key metros. This week’s results will force Ramaphosa into a different kind of deal. That has been the trend in SA for more than a decade now.

There is evidence of a correlation between what a party gets in local elections and what it gets in national polls. The results of these local government elections paint a horrifying picture for him and the ANC.

So hard that, four years later, there’s no substantive proof of the “new dawn”. Like many political speeches, delivering on the promise has been hard. It was effectively his manifesto for the ANC elections. Ramaphosa delivered a speech full of promise and gusto in November 2017 – a month before he became head of the ANC – promising “a new deal for jobs, growth and transformation”. In effect, the ANC, as it did at Nasrec in December 2017, will likely choose Ramaphosa as the best in a sea of bad options. Worse, it will for the first time be possible for an independent to stand for president in 2024 – so the ANC’s leadership choices in December next year have to consider that. There is nobody else the ANC can put up as a presidential candidate and still have a decent showing at the 2024 elections. (There are more voters in the cities.)įortunately for him, his credibility and mass appeal will save his bacon at the 2022 ANC elective conference. It is evident that the ANC will fall below 50% in 2024 and will need a coalition partner to retain control of SA. This week’s elections confirmed that the ANC is a rural party, and has lost appeal in urban SA. He was Jacob Zuma’s deputy for five years – and blaming only the Prince of Nkandla and the “nine wasted years” is only half the story. He has been the head of the party for four years and is failing to reverse the downward spiral. He needs to take a hard look at himself – and see the ANC’s performance in Monday’s elections as his scorecard.

President Cyril Ramaphosa needs to spend a bit more time in front of the mirror.

Mass effect 3 faces code